It is unlikely that the current Brazilian government, headed by Lula Da Silva, will give military support to Guyana in the event of an invasion by Venezuela. In fact, “unlikely” is a bit of an understatement. It is almost certain that Brazil, on its current stance and trajectory, will render any sort of military assistance to Guyana in the event of a Venezuelan incursion into Guyana.
Brazilian media revealed that around the 19th of November, 2023, President Irfaan Ali asked President Lula Da Silva to dissuade Maduro from holding his December 3 referendum which has as its objective gaining popular support for annexing the Essequibo county of Guyana. Lula did send a confidential person, Celso Amorim, to Venezuela to speak to Maduro. However, what Amorim did in essence was “alert” Maduro to the dangers of such actions and of the potentially catastrophic consequences of invading Guyana. He stopped short of requesting that Venezuela cancels the referendum. Amorim went back to Brazil and said that the campaign for the Essequibo by Venezuela is being done in such a forceful and dangerous way that there is nothing stopping Venezuela, in its current trajectory, from invading Guyana.
Around the 24th of November, 2023, residents of the Brazilian cities bordering Venezuela reported seeing heavy Brazilian military presence accumulating near to the border with Venezuela and Brazil. Soldiers, along with tanks, armored vehicles, and other military equipment, were moving to the border. In the light of concerns and questions raised by the citizens of this region, the Brazilian media first attempted to downplay the true nature of the event by saying that it was normal annual training exercise by the Brazilian military. However, sources close to the Brazilian military and government told this publication that the military presence was being built up in the face of fears that Venezuela might invade Guyana. On the 29th of November, 2023, Brazilian media officially admitted that Brazil was reinforcing its military presence at the border regions with Venezuela because Brazil “received intelligence” that Venezuela is preparing to invade Guyana.
Sources close to the Brazilian Government told this publication that, around Mid November, 2023, Nicolas Maduro made a special trip to Brazil where he proposed to Lula to give back to Brazil the once disputed Pirara Area if Lula allows Venezuela to move tanks and other military equipment into Guyana through Region 9’s more accessible border points with Brazil which has more friendly terrain. Lula did not respond to the proposal; however, the idea of a Venezuelan incursion into Guyana is extremely unpopular with the Brazilian people who will not allow their government to support Venezuela.
Nicolas Maduro and Lula Da Silva are close friends. They both share common communist ideologies, along with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Further, Brazil pursues a policy of non-interference, and would take a long time before taking sides in a military conflict where they are not directly involved or have signed a mutual defense agreement. The Brazilian military presence buildup at the border with Venezuela is being done to protect the citizens near to that border from any spillover of the war, and also to keep Brazil clean out of it.
If Jair Bolsonaro were President, there is a great likelihood that Brazil would have stood as a strong deterrent to Venezuelan aggression against Guyana. Jair Bolsonaro, a right wing capitalist, was no fan of Nicolas Maduro. But with Lula Da Silva in power, its a different ballgame altogether.
Despite the devastating humanitarian crisis and mass migration that a war between Guyana and Venezuela is likely to cause, Brazil’s President Lula Da Silva has done little to nothing to discourage it. As President Ali rightly thought in his mind, just one word from the invincible South America giant, Brazil, would stop Venezuela dead in its track. Brazil didn’t issue that word.
