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What Would Have Happened if the APNU/AFC Had Succeeded in Rigging the 2020 Elections?

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First Published: 27th of June, 2022


The APNU/AFC Coalition government led by Brigadier David Granger, ruled Guyana from 2015 to 2020. About 1.5 years of that term was illegal occupation of office since the coalition government fell by a no-confidence motion tabled by the PPP/C in December 2018.

Instead of assuming caretaker status and calling elections within 3 months as the law decrees, the APNU/AFC said they would use every means to stay into power, even going as far as the CCJ to challenge the validity of the no-confidence motion. They lost all court cases miserably – which dragged on to 2020. The coalition government lost the regional and general elections of March 2020 – which put the main opposition, PPP/C in power.

But the coalition government vehemently refused to relinquish power for 6 months subsequent to losing the March 2020 elections – employing a wide variety of delay tactics and bullyish techniques to hold on illegally to power. Some elements within the coalition government evidently had no intentions of conceding defeat – but they were forced out after strong pressure from international and regional partners as well as the foreign representatives of the United States, Canada, and European Union in Guyana.

The APNU/AFC coalition government failed to rig the March 2, 2020 elections, resulting in a PPP/C transition of government. But have you ever wondered…what would have happened if the coalition government had succeeded in rigging the elections and stayed in power illegally?

Of course, no one can know for sure, but here is a theory based on circumstantial evidence. First of all, President Granger would have spent a huge chunk on the oil revenue strengthening the Guyana Defense Force. Guyana’s military budget would have likely doubled, tripled, quadrupled or increased ten times. Military aircraft, boats, and other equipment would have been purchased, and incentives for joining the military would have been greatly increased.

The coalition government would have then used the military to keep itself in power for the next 100 years or so by a military dictatorship – until it backfired. The country would have seen mass migration of the Indo-Guyanese population. Those East Indians who remained would have been marginalized and faced oppression. A huge chunk of Guyana’s revenues would have been spent empowering friends and supporters of the coalition government. Guyana would have faced international sanctions, and, unable to provide for itself, the oil revenues would have done little to save Guyana. Guyana would have eventually deteriorated into another crime-ridden, gang-infested, Haiti. Many members and top supporters of the coalition government would have then fled with huge slabs of money and settled down for a good life in first world countries, leaving the rest of Guyana to the dogs.

Read More: Guyana’s Failed Independence

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