As tensions with Guyana’s western neighbor, Venezuela, is at an all time high, the Venezuelan government recently called President Ali the “Zelensky of the Caribbean.” On the 1st of March, 2025, a Venezuelan military vessel entered Guyana’s side of the Atlantic Ocean and communicated with EXXONMOBIL vessels that they are operating illegally. Meanwhile, Venezuela has been amassing troops and military equipment on the Ankoko Island, a once disputed territory which Venezuela seized without resistance in 1966. Venezuela also built an industry standard bridge linking Ankoko Island to the Venezuelan mainland. The bridge was completed last year (2024). All of these factors suggest that Venezuela might be planning a Russian style usurpation of Guyanese territory.
The ongoing territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the Essequibo region has drawn comparisons to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, while both conflicts involve territorial claims and the threat of military force, the similarities largely end there. The geopolitical, historical, and economic realities surrounding the two disputes make it clear that Venezuela’s claims over the Essequibo do not parallel Russia’s war on Ukraine. Here’s why:
1. Venezuela Never Governed the Essequibo
One of the most critical distinctions between the Russia-Ukraine war and the Venezuela-Guyana dispute is the historical relationship between the claimant and the contested land. Ukraine was once a part of the Soviet Union, governed from Moscow, before gaining independence in 1991. Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its 2022 invasion of Ukraine were, in the Kremlin’s opinion, justified by the fact that Ukraine was historically and culturally tied to Russia.
In contrast, Venezuela has never governed the Essequibo region. The territory has been administered by Guyana (formerly British Guiana) for centuries. The Essequibo was awarded to British Guiana in 1899 through international arbitration, and Venezuela accepted the ruling until it reversed its position decades later. Unlike Russia’s claim over Ukraine, which has a basis in former political integration, Venezuela’s claim over Essequibo lacks historical governance, making its legal standing much weaker.
2. Venezuela Lacks Russia’s Military and Financial Capabilities
Russia is a global military power with one of the world’s largest armies, a massive nuclear arsenal, and a defense budget in the hundreds of billions of dollars. It was able to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a country of over 40 million people, because it had the military resources to sustain such a campaign.
Venezuela, on the other hand, lacks both the financial and military strength to execute and maintain a large-scale invasion of Essequibo. Years of economic decline, hyperinflation, and sanctions have crippled Venezuela’s economy, leaving its military underfunded and its capacity for extended warfare extremely limited. While President Nicolás Maduro has used aggressive rhetoric and staged military exercises near the Guyanese border, Venezuela does not have the economic or military infrastructure to sustain a prolonged conflict.
3. The U.S. Might Intervene Directly Against Venezuela
One of the most significant deterrents to Venezuelan aggression is the likelihood of direct U.S. military intervention. Unlike Ukraine, which does not have a formal defense pact with the United States, Guyana enjoys strong diplomatic and economic ties with Washington. The U.S. has already sent military forces to Guyana for joint exercises in response to Venezuela’s threats, signaling its willingness to defend Guyana’s territorial integrity.
Any Venezuelan incursion into Essequibo would likely trigger a swift U.S. response, something Venezuela’s military is entirely unprepared for. While Russia’s nuclear capabilities have deterred direct NATO involvement in Ukraine, Venezuela has no such leverage. A war with the United States would be devastating for Venezuela, making an invasion of Essequibo an incredibly risky gamble.
4. Venezuela Cannot Afford the Costs of Annexation
Essequibo is not just an empty piece of land—it is a resource-rich region that Guyana has spent billions developing. Oil companies such as ExxonMobil have made massive investments in Guyana’s offshore oil sector, and Guyana’s government has poured resources into infrastructure, tourism, and social programs in the region.
If Venezuela were to successfully annex Essequibo, it would inherit not just the land but also the financial obligations tied to its development. International investors and corporations would demand compensation for their losses, something Venezuela simply cannot afford. Moreover, any attempts to take over existing oil operations would trigger legal and economic retaliation from powerful global players, making it nearly impossible for Venezuela to reap the economic benefits of an annexation.
5. International Stakeholders Will Resist Venezuela’s Claims
Beyond the economic implications, Venezuela’s claim over Essequibo is further complicated by the presence of powerful foreign stakeholders, including the British monarchy. King Charles III has personally supported conservation efforts in the Iwokrama Rainforest, a key environmental zone within the disputed territory. This international involvement makes Venezuela’s claim even more contentious, as any attempt to take over the region would face backlash from influential global actors.
Additionally, multinational corporations, financial institutions, and international organizations have vested interests in Essequibo’s stability. The threat of economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and legal battles would make any Venezuelan annexation of Essequibo a logistical nightmare. Unlike Russia, which has been able to withstand severe sanctions due to its vast energy resources and economic ties with China, Venezuela’s already fragile economy would collapse under similar international pressure.
Conclusion: A Conflict Venezuela Cannot Win
While Venezuela may continue to make aggressive claims over Essequibo, its situation is fundamentally different from Russia’s war against Ukraine. Venezuela has never governed Essequibo, lacks the military strength to launch a full-scale invasion, would face direct U.S. intervention, cannot afford the financial burden of annexation, and would encounter stiff resistance from global stakeholders.
Ultimately, any Venezuelan attempt to seize Essequibo by force would be self-destructive, leading to international isolation and economic ruin. Unlike Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has persisted despite global opposition, a Venezuelan attack on Guyana would likely be short-lived and disastrous for Venezuela itself.
This notwithstanding, a Venezuelan incursion into Guyana is not impossible. The Maduro Regime is not incapable of doing the stupidest and most self-destructive thing on earth. For years, the Venezuelan government has been barking over the Essequibo. Defense of the Essequibo by the Bolivarian Armed Forces is now part of the Venezuelan constitution. The Guyanese government therefore would be well-advised to be prepared. A solid plan of action backed by a contingency plan should be in place. Further, measures should be put in place to deter Venezuelan aggression. In this geopolitical equation, Venezuela is not Russia, and Guyana is not Ukraine, but Guyana still needs to exercise extreme caution in this potentially explosive and volatile situation.
I appreciate the effort you put into making this so clear.
Your writing always resonates with me, and this post was no different.