In a previous article published a few days before Venezuela’s national elections, I mentioned that “the fate of Guyana’s western neighbor hung in the balance.” Nearly two weeks later, the situation remains the same. Yes, a lot has changed, but the more things changed, the more they remained the same. Venezuelans went out in their numbers on that fateful day of July 28, braving rain and sun, and voted for change: for the betterment and future of Venezuela. They overwhelmingly elected the Unitary Platform led by Edmundo Gonzalez and party leader Maria Corina. But to date, despite popular support, these daring politicians are still unable to wrest control of the country from dictator Nicolas Maduro who is holding the country of Venezuela hostage through corrupt use of the armed forces.
As of today, 11th of August, 2024, Venezuela and Venezuelans face an uncertain future. After weeks of protests which was met with violent resistance from the corrupt armed forces of Venezuela, the people are facing a dwindling hope of ever defeating the current military dictatorship led by strongman Nicolas Maduro. Since July 28th, 2024, hundreds, or possibly thousands of Venezuelans were beaten, wounded, killed, kidnapped, arrested, and imprisoned by the Maduro regime. There are also unconfirmed reports that arrested protestors may be subjected to torture in Venezuelan prisons, and are being kept in inhumane conditions.
Despite having the will to overthrow their oppressor, the Venezuelan majority are unarmed civilians. Nicolas Maduro has forged a nearly unbreakable bond with the armed forces using well known dictatorship tactics. The people are now tired and somewhat broken. Yes, there will be protests again in the upcoming days. A daring Machado, for whom an arrest warrant was already issued, has called for a worldwide protest against the Maduro regime on August 17th, 2024. But there is little to suggest that these protests will be any different from the ones in the past days and weeks. Now, the Venezuelan majority are losing their zeal and vigor which is being replaced by fear, tiredness, and discouragement. Already, many have started to flee to foreign shores.
Several powerful nations, including the United States and Argentina, have officially recognized the Unitary Platform as the winner of the July 28 elections, and Edmund Gonzalez as President. But this is unlikely to change anything. It is reminiscent of the time back in 2019 when over 100 countries, including the whole of the United Nations, officially declared Juan Guido as the legitimate president of Venezuela, but failed to get the military to switch sides. Obviously, it will take more than words and protests to unseat Nicolas Maduro. The Venezuelan Minister of Defense, General Vladimir Padrino Lopez, has pledged his unwavering support for Nicolas Maduro and has vowed to hold the military in line.
A military operation might be the only hope to remove Nicolas Maduro from power. But this is a difficult and problematic task. To begin with, Venezuela is a difficult country to invade because of its superior surface to air anti-aircraft missile defense system, which is one of the best in the world, in addition to its formidable and well equipped military. These and other factors make a military operation against Caracas extremely risky and likely to result in high civilian casualties.
Wresting control of Venezuela from its armed forces is hard enough, but the other question is: who is willing to do it? The United States government, which has historically faced harsh criticism for its involvement in the internal affairs of sovereign states, has given no indication that they are willing or ready to use their military to free Venezuela; and doing so might put them at risk of breaching international laws.
The sad reality is that a well-planned military operation by allied nations might be the only hope for saving Venezuela right now. But this is risky business. Even if the United Nations green-lights the operation, Russia and China might side with Maduro, putting the world at risk of a third world war.
The fate of our western neighbor still hangs in the balance, but today, the future looks bleaker than two weeks ago when there was greater hope.
If Maduro survives the ongoing shakeup, the world can expect more Venezuelan refugees pouring into countries around the world, seeking food, shelter, employment, and safety. This is a daunting prospect as Venezuelan refugees, already facing hardships on the sidewalks of many countries, are currently putting a strain on many economies around the world which are unable to sustain them.
The best thing for Venezuelans right now is to go home and rebuild their country. This can only happen if there is a democratic transition of government, or if the democratic transition is assisted by foreign military intervention, which shows no signs of happening soon.
Pray for Venezuela and the people of Venezuela. Prayers are very much needed at this time.
