It is unlikely that the current Brazilian government, headed by Lula Da Silva, will give military support to Guyana in the event of an invasion by Venezuela. In fact, “unlikely” is a bit of an understatement. It is almost certain that Brazil, on its current stance and trajectory, will render any sort of military assistance to Guyana in the event of a Venezuelan incursion into Guyana.
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There’s just about three days left before Venezuela’s 3rd of December referendum which seeks to ratify the support of the Venezuelan people for forcefully annexing the Essequibo county of Guyana and making it into a new state within the country of Venezuela. While the Guyana Government has petitioned the ICJ to issue a ruling that confirms the illegality of such a move, and the court is scheduled to do so on Friday, December, 1, 2023, president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, has said that that won’t stop him from flooding the Essequibo with Venezuelan soldiers and civilians and demarcating new boundaries for Venezuela after the referendum.
Brazil’s largest and most reputable media house, Globo, has officially confirmed on the afternoon of Tuesday, November, 29th, 2023, that Brazilian military reinforcements were being sent to the border between Venezuela and Brazil and Pacaraima to protect the citizens of Brazil in the event of a war between Venezuela and Guyana, or if Venezuela invades Guyana with low to no resistance.
The Brazilian Army went on alert in the early hours of Saturday, 25th of November, 2023 after receiving intelligence information about a possible intention to invade Guyana from Venezuela, which would require the passage of troops through Brazilian territory. As a precaution, the High Command began the emergency mobilization of troops to the border.
As of today, 26th of November, 2023, exactly one week is left before the Maduro Regime executes is referendum whereby Venezuelan citizens go to the polls to vote on whether or not they want the government to annex the Essequibo county of Guyana into Venezuelan territory. The Venezuelan military has been activated and put on full alert. Its mandate is to “defend the Essequibo” after the presumably successful December 3 referendum.
For far too long, the Guyana Government has simply shrugged at the thought of Venezuela invading the Essequibo and occupying it, but in recent days, they seem to be taking it a bit more seriously. Vice President, Dr. Bharrat Jagdeo, in a press conference yesterday, 23rd of November, 2023, said that all options are on the table for protecting Guyana from a Venezuelan invasion of the Essequibo, and this includes use of force.
In this context, Lula works to avoid an escalation between Venezuela and Guyana. The Brazilian president sent his main foreign policy advisor and de facto foreign minister, Celso Amorim, to Caracas to talk with Maduro.
Another rumor which recently started to circulate is that the the Lethem Trail and Kurupukari Crossing will be closed today, 24th of November, 2023. This publication wishes to advise that, as of today, 24th of November, 2023 at 12:00 Noon, there are no plans in place by the Government of Guyana to close the Lethem Trail or Kurupukari Crossing.
“Brazil made an exhortation, with all other countries, for understanding, the diplomatic and peaceful solution of disputes. I had the opportunity to say that Brazil strongly supports negotiations, understandings and arbitration, with appeals to international courts, such as the Court of The Hague, whenever possible”, said the chancellor.
Venezuela has scheduled a referendum for December 3rd regarding the possibility of annexing the Essequibo region. The territory in question is part of Guyana, meaning the situation could cause a war between the two countries. Therefore, Itamaraty diplomats are already observing the situation and looking for ways to maintain peace.
As tensions between Guyana and Venezuela are at an all time high, and Venezuelan military presence ramps up at the Guyana/Venezuela border, residents living in border towns are experiencing increased anxiety and fear.
The Guyanese Government is grossly incompetent where it comes to defense. There is no plan of action, no contingency plans, no mutual defense arrangement, and no material military equipment acquisition. It’s mostly believing in hopes and prayers that the western world comes to its aid…which they might, but at what cost to the people of Guyana?
Many Guyanese are worried right now. They’re wondering if Venezuela will succeed in its shameless attempt to annex the Essequibo. Some rest in the comforting confidence that they will not.
The likelihood of a Venezuelan incursion into the disputed Essequibo territory is relatively low at the moment, but it is still dreadfully present. And to answer the question: no, Guyana should not fear a Venezuelan incursion, but it should nevertheless be prepared it.
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